July 8, 2020
Total steel demand for the second quarter of FY2020 (July-September 2020) is estimated to be 17.28 million tons. Demand will decrease by 24.3% compared with 22.81 million tons in the previous year due to the global pandemic of the novel coronavirus disease (hereinafter referred to as “coronavirus”), while it is later estimated to slightly increase by 1.1% compared with 17.09 million tons in the previous quarter’s forecast due to a pick-up in production activities of consumers as well as other factors.
- Domestic demand:
Construction: Steel demand in the construction sector will decrease on a year-on-year basis and remain flat from the previous quarter’s forecast since: demand in the civil engineering sector is expected to increase for public construction in association with national initiatives for building national resilience, e.g., renovation of aged infrastructure facilities and measures for disaster prevention and reduction, while demand in the architecture sector is expected to remain sluggish due to impacts of the coronavirus and other factors.
Manufacturing: Demand for steel in the manufacturing sector will decrease on a year-on-year basis due to the impact of the coronavirus and other factors, while in automobile manufacturing it is expected to increase from the previous quarter’s forecast due to a a step-by-step increase in production levels by Japanese automobile manufacturers. - Steel exports:
Steel exports will decrease not only on a year-on-year basis but also from the previous quarter’s forecast due to the impact of the coronavirus as well as various other factors.
Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 17.70 million tons, which is a decrease of 27.9% compared with 24.55 million tons in the previous year and a decrease of 3.2% compared with 18.29 million tons in the previous quarter’s forecast.
Steel Demand Prospects for the Second Quarter of FY2020 (July -September 2020)
(Unit: million tons)
| Total Steel | ||||
| Ordinary Steel | Special Steel | |||
| Steel Demand | 17.28 | 14.14 | 3.14 | |
| Year-on-year change | (22.81) -24.3% | (18.17) -22.2% | (4.65) -32.4% | |
| Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast | (17.09) +1.1% | (13.95) +1.4% | (3.14) -0.0% | |
| 1) Domestic Demand | 11.97 | 9.79 | 2.18 | |
| Year-on-year change | (15.38) -22.1% | (12.13) -19.3% | (3.25) -32.8% | |
| Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast | (11.40) +5.0% | (9.35) +4.7% | (2.05) +6.5% | |
| 2) Export | 5.30 | 4.35 | 0.95 | |
| Year-on-year change | (7.43) -28.6% | (6.04) -27.9% | (1.39) -31.6% | |
| Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast | (5.69) -6.8% | (4.60) -5.4% | (1.09) -12.4% |
References:
Crude steel demand equivalent to shipment: 17.70 million tons
Year-on-year change: (24.55 million tons) -27.9%
Change from the previous quarter’s forecast: (18.29 million tons) -3.2%
Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers
Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-June forecast): 6.26 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.41 months
Inventory for the domestic market among the above inventory (end-June forecast): 5.39 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.85 months
Notes:
- The figures in parentheses show the quantity for the same period of the previous year, or the previous quarter’s forecast for comparison purposes (unit: million tons).
- The total steel amount does not always correspond to the combination of subtotals since those figures are calculated per thousand tons.
