July 13, 2021
Total steel demand for the second quarter of FY2021 (July-September 2021) is estimated to be 21.75 million tons.
The demand will increase by 17.0% compared with 18.59 million tons in the previous year, which was low because of the pandemic of the novel coronavirus disease (hereinafter referred to as “coronavirus”). It is estimated to increase by 7.2% compared with 20.28 million tons in the previous quarter’s forecast following a recovery of demand in the manufacturing and other industries.
(1) Domestic demand:
Construction: Steel demand in the construction sector will increase from the previous quarter’s forecast due to seasonal variation in the civil engineering sector. It will remain flat on a year-on-year basis because of public construction projects that are expected to be carried out under the Five-Year Acceleration Plan for Disaster Prevention, Disaster Mitigation, and Building National Resilience.
Manufacturing: Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will increase from the previous quarter’s forecast because steel users’ production activities are on a recovery trend. It will increase on a year-on-year basis, rebounding from the low demand levels due to the impact of the coronavirus.
(2) Steel exports:
Steel exports will increase compared to the previous quarter’s forecast, with expectations that economic activity will continue to pick up. It will increase on a year-on-year basis, rebounding from the low demand levels due to the impact of the coronavirus.
Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 24.69 million tons,
30.1% increase compared with 18.98 million tons in the corresponding quarter of the previous year and a slight increase of 1.2 % compared with 24.40 million tons forecasted for the previous quarter.
Steel Demand Prospects for the Second Quarter of FY2021 (July-September 2021)
| Total Steel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ordinary Steel | Special Steel | |||
| Steel Demand | 21.75 | 16.90 | 4.85 | |
| Year-on-year change | (1,859) +17.0% | (1,550) +9.1% | (309) +56.6% | |
| Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast | (2,028) +7.2% | (1,569) +7.7% | (459) +5.6% | |
| Domestic Demand | 14.39 | 10.90 | 3.49 | |
| Year-on-year change | (1,279) +12.6% | (1,046) +4.2% | (233) +50.2% | |
| Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast | (1,368) +5.3% | (1,033) +5.5% | (335) +4.4% | |
| Exports | 7.35 | 6.00 | 1.35 | |
| Year-on-year change | (581) +26.7% | (504) +19.2% | (77) +76.1% | |
| Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast | (660) +11.3% | (536) +11.9% | (124) +8.7% |
Reference
Crude steel demand equivalent to steel products:
24.69 million tons
Year-on-year change:
(18.98 million tons) +30.1%
Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast: (24.40 million tons) +1.2%
Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers
Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-June forecast): 6.19 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.16 months
Inventory for the domestic market among the above inventory (end-June forecast): 5.43 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.53 months
Note: The total steel amount does not always correspond to the aggregate of subtotals, since those figures are calculated per thousand tons.
